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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still