Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."